过渡分析在先秦时期人骨年龄估计中的应用

doi:10.16359/j.1000-3193/AAS.2021.0063

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

成人骨骼年龄的估计向来是存在许多困难和争议的。通过对其发展历程的回顾可知,尽管早已研发出了相对较可靠的用耻骨联合、髂骨耳状关节面等特征部位的形态估计年龄的方法,但鉴于“年龄模拟效应”的存在,这些方法都不可避免地会使估计的结果出现偏差。建立在贝叶斯方法和最大似然估计的基础上,Jesper Boldsen等研发出的“过渡分析”能够有效地消除上述不良影响。借助ADBOU软件,通过对山西先秦时期人骨样本进行过渡分析的实践,发现传统的形态观察法和过渡分析法会造成估计得到的死亡年龄结构出现差异。由于年龄估计结果的差异会对古人口学研究造成显著影响,因此建议在借鉴过渡分析的基础上,加强对年龄估计方法的改进。

关键词: 古人口学, 过渡分析, 年龄鉴定

Abstract:

There had always been difficulties and controversies in estimating adult human skeleton’s age. Via reviewing the development of the estimation methods, it revealed that these methods would inevitably lead to biased results because of the effect of “age mimicry”, although the methods which based on the traits such as pubic symphysis and auricular surface on the ilium had been developed for a long time and was regarded as reliable methods. Based on Bayesian method and maximum likelihood estimation, “transition analysis (TA)” created by Jesper Boldsen et al. could eliminate the harmful effect mentioned above. By ADBOU, the practice of TA on the skeleton sample of the pre-Qin period from Shanxi reveled the different age-at-death distributions produced by traditional morphological observational method and TA. The difference of the results of age estimation would affect paleodemographic research notably so it is necessary to adopt TA, and more efforts on improving the estimation of skeleton’s age should be made.

Key words: Paleodemography, Transition analysis, Age estimation

中图分类号:

Q983/C922

侯侃. 过渡分析在先秦时期人骨年龄估计中的应用[J]. 人类学学报, 2022, 41(03): 439-449.

HOU Kan. Application of the transition analysis in estimation of human skeleton age of the Pre-Qin period[J]. Acta Anthropologica Sinica, 2022, 41(03): 439-449.

图/表 8

图1 XNC60过渡分析年龄估计结果的95%置信区间条形图

Fig.1 Bar chart of 95% confidential intervals of the estimated ages by transition analysis of XNC60

表1 XNC60的过渡分析年龄估计结果

Tab.1 Result of transition analysis of XNC60

纳入分析的数据Data for analysis	95%置信区间下限The lower limit of the 95% confidence interval	点估计值 Point estimation value	95%置信区间上限The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval
全部数据	24.6	30.4	38.1
颅骨骨缝数据	20.8	37.2	82.6
耻骨联合面数据	24.8	32.3	44.2
耳状关节面数据	15	16.8	35.8

图2 两种方法年龄估计结果的对比

Fig.2 Results of age estimation

表2 两种年龄估计结果的配对t检验

Tab.2 T test of paired-sample estimated ages

配对Pair	T	P（双尾two-tailed)
a	-0.598	0.551
b	-1.162	0.100
c	-3.395	0.001
d	2.282	0.025

表3 四组置信区间宽度的Weich’s ANOVA检验的多重比较结果

Tab.3 Results of multiple comparison of Weich’s ANOVA of four groups of the width of confidence interval

组别Group	对比组 Group for comparison	平均差异Mean difference	标准误 Std. error	P值（双尾）P value (two-tailed)
a	b	-0.502	2.382	1.000
	c	-3.630	2.384	0.565
	d	3.937	2.116	0.329
b	a	0.502	2.382	1.000
	c	-3.129	2.445	0.742
	d	4.439	2.184	0.234
c	a	3.630	2.384	0.565
	b	3.129	2.445	0.742
	d	-7.568	2.186	0.004
d	a	-3.937	2.116	0.329
	b	-4.439	2.184	0.234
	c	-7.568	2.186	0.004

图3 形态年龄与分析年龄关系的散点图

Fig.3 The scatter diagram of the ages estimated by morphological method and ages estimated by transition analysis

图4 分析年龄与置信区间宽度的关系散点图

Fig.4 The scatter diagram of the ages estimated by transition analysis and the widths of confidence intervals

图5 两组人口数据的生存曲线图注：实线表示形态年龄构成的人口,虚线表示分析年龄构成的人口

Fig.5 Survivorship curves of two populations

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