人类学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (04): 731-748.doi: 10.16359/j.1000-3193/AAS.2022.0029
收稿日期:
2022-04-06
修回日期:
2022-05-20
出版日期:
2022-08-12
发布日期:
2022-08-10
作者简介:
吕厚远,研究员,主要从事第四纪地质和环境考古研究。Email: 基金资助:
Received:
2022-04-06
Revised:
2022-05-20
Online:
2022-08-12
Published:
2022-08-10
摘要:
从古至今,气候变化特别是周期性气候变化,一直深刻影响着人类社会的变革和发展,从旧石器时代人类起源迁移、新石器时代文化文明演变、历史时期王朝兴衰更替,到工业化以来社会经济发展动荡等,无不留下周期性气候变化影响的烙印。本文依据近年来古气候、古人类、环境考古等研究的新证据、新进展,从周期性气候变化的角度审视人类社会各个发展阶段、关键节点的气候特征;通过典型案例,介绍和分析旧石器、新石器、历史时期不同时空尺度周期性气候变化和人类活动之间复杂的相互作用关系,讨论自然科学和人文社会科学对气候变化与人类活动关系认识的异同,阐述在学科交叉背景下研究气候与人类活动关系的新范式。
中图分类号:
吕厚远. 周期性气候变化与人类适应[J]. 人类学学报, 2022, 41(04): 731-748.
LYU Houyuan. Periodic climate change and human adaptation[J]. Acta Anthropologica Sinica, 2022, 41(04): 731-748.
图2 东亚农业起源气候周期叠加驱动的可能机制[15,16,75-78,83]
Fig.2 Possible mechanism of climate cycle superposition driving the origin of agriculture in East Asia[15,16,75-78,83]
图3 中国东部小龙湾年纹层孢粉分析揭示的5350年以来的温度变化示意图 该图显示,近100年升温过程位于500年自然周期的变暖相位上;a.谱分析结果;b.气候变化曲线(据[103])。
Fig.3 Temperature changes since 5350 years ago revealed by annual stratigraphy pollen analysis in Xiaolongwan Lake, Eastern China indicating a warming process in the last 100 years, which is located in the warming phase of the 500-year natural cycle. a. spectrum analysis results; b. Climate change curve (by [103])
图4 扰沌(panarchy)连接,多个尺度上的关联适应循环[23] 图中r、K、Ω和α解释:r阶段(生长)系统的连接度和稳定性增加,并且开始积累自然资源和社会资本;K阶段(积累)聚集的资源越来越为系统所固持,随着系统的连接度增加、控制力也越来越强;Ω阶段(重组)随着K状态过度连接和僵硬的控制,导致系统的恢复力(resilience)降低,积累变得十分微弱,在微不足道的干扰下,会导致系统出现巨大危机和转变;α阶段(更新)系统进行重新组织,过程具有高度不确定性,有可能重复上一循环,也可能进入新的不同的循环。
Fig.4 Panarchy connections, linked adaptive cycles at multiple scales[23] Originally published in Panarchy: Understanding transformations in human and natural systems, Edited by Lance H. Gunderson and C.S. Holling 2002. Permission Island Press[23]). r, K, Ω and α Explanation: r stage (growth), the connectivity and stability of the system increase in r stage, and begin to accumulate natural resources and social capital; K-stage (accumulation), the resources gathered in stage K are increasingly fixed by the system, and the control force becomes increasingly stronger with the increase of the connection degree of the system; Ω stage (reorganization) with the over connection and rigid control in K state, the resilience of the system decreases and the accumulation becomes very weak, under insignificant interference, it will lead to great crisis and transformation of the system; α stage (update) system is reorganized, and the process is highly uncertain, it is possible to repeat the previous cycle or enter a new and different cycle.
图5 自适应循环模型分析气候变化在中国近2000年以来宏观经济周期和朝代周期中的作用[22] 从上到下: 1)α、r、K和Ω分别代表自适应周期的4个阶段[23];它们同时也对应图中第2排的不同王朝; 2)彩色条表示中国百年尺度的暖/冷期[18];3)适应周期中每个主要王朝的阶段;4)各朝代皇帝在适应周期中所处的阶段;这8个圆圈代表8个漫长的朝代:西汉(公元前206年至公元25年)、东汉(公元25年至220年);唐(公元618-907年);北宋(北公元960-1127年);南宋(公元1127-1279年);元(公元1234-1368年);明代(公元1368-1644年);清朝(公元1644-1911年)。
Fig.5 The adaptive cycle model used to analyze the role of climate in the macro-economic and dynastic cycles in China over the past 2000 a[22] From top to bottom: 1) α, r, K, and Ω represent four phases of the adaptive cycle, respectively[23]; here, they also refer to the dynasties identified in the second row of the figure; 2) the colored bar indicates centennial-scale warm/cold periods in China[18]; 3) the phase of each major dynasty in the adaptive cycle; 4) the phase of Emperor in each dynasty in the adaptive cycle; the eight loops represent eight long dynasties: the Western Han(W. Han, 206 BC-AD 25), Eastern Han(E. Han, AD 25-220); Tang(AD 618-907); Northern Song(N. Song, AD 960-1127); Southern Song(S. Song, AD 1127-1279); Yuan(AD 1234-1368); Ming(AD 1368-1644); and Qing(AD 1644-1911)
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